Background
Non-sterilizing HIV-1 vaccines may provide public health benefits if they significantly reduce plasma HIV-1 RNA, thus potentially reducing infectiousness. Quantification of reduction in plasma HIV-1 RNA needed to decrease HIV-1 transmission is useful for design of efficacy trials of candidate HIV-1 vaccines. We modeled the relationship between plasma HIV-1 RNA and HIV-1 transmission using data from a prospective study of African heterosexual HIV-1 serodiscordant couples.