Figure 5

Adaptation characteristics as correlates of HLA-associated progression risk. Colored dots denote individual HLA-A (red), HLA-B (blue) and HLA-C (green) alleles for which ≥2 adapted polymorphisms were investigated in the present study (N = 17 alleles total). Each HLA allele’s Hazard Ratio of progression to AIDS (x-axis) was derived from historic published seroconverter studies [36]. Panel A: For each HLA, the proportion of persons expressing that allele and harboring the specific viral HLA-associated polymorphism in early infection was calculated as the mean of all HLA-associated adapted polymorphisms investigated (y-axis). A significant positive relationship is observed between these two variables (Pearson’s R = 0.53, p = 0.028), suggesting that in general, high early escape prevalence is a correlate of higher HLA-associated progression risk. Panel B: For each HLA, the mean fold-increase in escape in chronic versus early infection was calculated from all HLA-associated adapted polymorphisms investigated (y-axis). A significant inverse relationship is observed between these two variables (Pearson’s R = -0.54, p = 0.025), suggesting that in general, protective alleles are those from which HIV-1 escape is substantial and reproducible, yet occurs on a delayed timescale.