Phylodynamics of HIV-1 Circulating Recombinant Forms 12_BF and 38_BF in Argentina and Uruguay

Retrovirology

Table 3 Bayes Factors (BF) between exponential (Exp) and logistic (Log) growth demographic models for the HIV-1 CRF12_BF and CRF38_BF pol data sets.

Subtype	Model comparison	ln (BF)^a	Evidence against H₀^b
CRF12_BF	Exp (H₀) vs Log (H₁) Strict clock	111.7 (0.6)	Decisive
	Exp (H₀) vs Log (H₁) Relaxed clock	142.0 (0.7)	Decisive
	Log Strict (H₀) vs Relaxed (H₁) clock	48.0 (0.5)	Decisive
CRF38_BF	Exp (H₀) vs Log (H₁) Strict clock	6.9 (0.3)	Decisive
	Exp (H₀) vs Log (H₁) Relaxed clock	10.5 (0.4)	Decisive
	Log Strict (H₀) vs Relaxed (H₁) clock	8.7 (0.3)	Decisive

^aln (BF) = Bayes Factor is the difference (in ln space) of the marginal likelihood of null (H₀) and alternative (H₁) model. The SE of the estimates is given in parenthesis and was estimated using 1000 bootstrap replicates. ^bEvidence against H₀ was assessed in the following way: ln (BF) < 0 indicates no evidence against the null model; ln (BF) between 0-2.3 indicates weak evidence against the null model, ln (BF) between 2.3-3.4 indicates strong evidence against the null model; ln (BF) between 3.4-4.6 indicates very strong evidence against the null model; and ln (BF) > 4.6 indicates decisive evidence against the null model.

ISSN: 1742-4690